Hyperliquid Daily Report · $HYPE Morning Brief

$HYPE Morning Brief - 2026-10-12

Price action, protocol revenue, and valuation snapshot for the Hyperliquid ecosystem.

Source 2026-10-12.md Series 654 daily rows Generated 2026-10-12 08:10 UTC Cadence 04:00 UTC
01

6M Macro Trend

HYPE / BTC / Revenue / P-S · daily, last 180 days
Drag to zoom · double-click to reset · click legend to toggle · range buttons + slider below.
02

Morning Brief

Price Action

Asset Current 1d Chg 7d Chg 30d Chg
$BTC $83,729 +0.9% -3.2% +8.5%
$HYPE $86.65 +1.4% -4.3% +9.1%

Protocol Revenue

Metric Value
Today $1,818,582
7d avg $2,189,619
30d avg $2,479,478
7d vs 30d -11.7%

Valuation

Metric Value
Circulating supply 22.2% of 1,000,000,000
Market cap $19.27B
P/S, 7d revenue annualized + AQAv2 19.7x
AQAv2 revenue, latest payout annualized $177.40M
P/S, 7d revenue annualized (on-chain only) 24.1x

Investment Summary

  • Market Regime: Mild risk-off. BTC is consolidating after a strong month, down -3.2% over 7d but still up +8.5% over 30d. The market is digesting recent gains rather than breaking trend.
  • Relative Strength: HYPE is modestly lagging BTC, at -4.3% over 7d versus BTC -3.2%. The move looks more like consolidation than a structural breakdown for now.
  • Revenue Signal: Protocol revenue cooled to $1,818,582 today, with the 7d avg at $2,189,619 now -11.7% below the 30d avg at $2,479,478. That points to a meaningful slowdown in network activity versus the prior month.
  • Strategy: Neutral / consolidation. The signal set is mixed, so patience makes sense here. Watch whether HYPE can base around $82-84.5; a cleaner bullish case opens on a move back through $90.5-94, with risk below $77.5.

Data analysis only, not financial advice.

LIVE · CoinGecko
HYPE Price
$87.49
HYPE FDV
$83.59B
BNB Price
$753.05
BNB FDV
$100.27B
03

USDC Reserve Income (AQA / AQAv2) — Actual Payouts & Run-Rate

USDC (+other pegged stablecoins) circulating on Hyperliquid L1 · DefiLlama, daily
This is the float AQAv2 reserve income scales off of — a balance, not trading volume. Drag to zoom · range buttons above chart.
ACTUAL PAYOUTS · HL ledger · not in revenue_daily, included in P/S incl. AQAv2

Hyperliquid's AQAv2 (Aligned Quote Asset) program: Coinbase/Circle remit ~90% of the cost-adjusted reserve yield on USDC held on Hyperliquid to the protocol. Per the official docs it is accrued daily at 0 UTC, settled in 30-day intervals (from 2026-08-26), and paid to the Assistance Fund 8 days after each interval closes — so it lands on-chain as one lump per month, as a system send of USDC from 0x5000…0000 to the Assistance Fund (0xfefe…fefe), which funds open-market $HYPE buybacks. DefiLlama does not count it, so it is absent from revenue_daily; the headline P/S adds the latest payout annualized (×365/30) on top of on-chain revenue.

Paid (UTC)Accrual intervalPayoutPer dayAnnualized (×365/30)
2026-10-042026-08-26 → 2026-09-24 $14.6M$486K$177.4M

Realized rate (latest payout): $177.4M/yr ÷ $7.03B average float over 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-24 = 2.52% net (≈2.80% gross-equivalent at 90% share). The earlier 3.5% gross assumption overstated this by ~25% on the live float; the scenarios below are re-centered on the realized rate.

Run-rate scenarioGross-equiv. yieldAnnualizedPer 30-day payoutDaily
Low2.50% $162.9M$13.4M$446.4K
Base2.80% $182.5M$15.0M$499.9K
High3.10% $202.0M$16.6M$553.4K

Scenarios apply to the live float ($7.23B, DefiLlama pegged-stablecoin supply on Hyperliquid L1, USDC ~95%+ of it, chart above) and estimate the next payout; the P/S itself uses the last actual payout, not a scenario. Because the float includes ~5% non-USDC stablecoins, the realized rate per USDC is slightly higher than shown. Mechanism confirmed by hyperliquid.gitbook.io/hyperliquid-docs/hypercore/aligned-quote-assets; first payout matched the documented Aug 26 + 30d + 8d schedule.

04

$HYPE P/S Explorer — Protocol Revenue × AQAv2 × Price

INTERACTIVE · illustrative, not a tracked metric

Drag the heatmap to set HYPE price and AQAv2 revenue together, or use the sliders/number inputs for precise values. Protocol revenue is a separate, independent slider — it shifts the whole P/S surface without being a heatmap axis itself, so you can isolate its effect from the price/AQA tradeoff. P/S here is market cap ÷ annualized revenue, where market cap uses the circulating supply as of 2026-10-11 (222.4M HYPE) × the price you set. AQAv2 revenue is never in DefiLlama's tracked revenue_daily but it is real cash paid to the Assistance Fund monthly; the AQA slider defaults to the latest actual payout × 365/30, the same figure behind the headline P/S incl. AQAv2.

Enter: $M ·
Enter: $M ·
Enter: $ ·
Market Cap
—
Total Annualized Revenue
—
P/S (on-chain only)
—
P/S (on-chain + AQA)
—
P/S ≤15x (cheap)P/S ≥45x (expensive)

Heatmap: X axis = HYPE price, Y axis = AQAv2 annualized revenue, color = P/S (current protocol-revenue slider value + that cell's AQA revenue); the crosshair marks the current price/AQA slider values and can be dragged directly. Circulating supply and 7D/30D protocol-revenue baselines as of 2026-10-11; AQAv2 default = latest actual payout × 365/30; Low/Base/High = live USDC float $7.230B (DefiLlama) × 2.50%/2.80%/3.10% gross yield × 90% share (Base calibrated to actual payouts). Purely an interactive estimation tool; nothing here is written to the database.